I was going to get this thing fired out last night. I had a really dark opening in mind that had nothing to do with hockey. It was going to be a quick tour of my social anxieties, but I got distracted by something I read online about the musical collaboration between Lou Reed and Metallica, and the backlash from metal fans. I ended up writing about that instead, and didn't even get around to hockey. I'll put a link to it in my twitter when the Loutallica thing is posted somewhere.
It might have been off-topic, but I'm glad I got off on the rant when I did-- the opening I had in mind was a terrible idea. This one is just as off topic, but still.
Here is the final installment of 2011-12's prognostications game, focusing mostly on player stats, but including whatever else comes to mind about the Lightning and the game.
Dominic Moore, Nate Thompson, and Adam Hall will continue as critical skaters, in the defensive end of the ice, in the faceoff circle, and on the penalty kill. So much of last year's success can be credited to the depth on the bottom two forward lines. I call 14 goals and 15 assists for Moore, 11 goals and 8 assists for Thomspon, and 5 goals and 7 and seven assists for Hall. The PK, by the way, will rank 8th in the league.
PROGNOSTICATED!
The defense group? Let's do it!
Aging veteran Mattias Ohlund will be older, slower, more injury-prone, and will struggle to score a single goal all season. He will provide hair-pulling turnovers and missed assignments, but will also be, for whole periods at a time, a rock solid defender and a fearsome but clean open-ice hitter.
Aging veteran Eric Brewer will be solid, unsmiling, and "leadershippy." He'll chip in with two goals, maybe three. A full season of Brewbot in Tampa Bay is a good thing for this team.
Aging veteran Pavel Kubina will mostly be solid, and will contribute on the second-unit power play, pulling in maybe 7 goals and 21 assists for 28 points.
Brett Clark will not change games, but will get some points, providing one of the Lightning's power play options on the blueline. Look for 10 goals and 22 assists for 32 points.
Bruno Gervais comes over from the Islanders, and like other recent NYI refugees such as Thompson, Sean Bergenheim and Dwayne Roloson, he should see his career blossom. 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points.
Matt Gilroy, signed from the Rangers, welcome to the bottom of the depth chart! You might get games in when someone is hurt. Maybe you'll see forty or fifty games. 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points.
One the other hand, Marc-Andre Bergeron is going to score a bunch of power play goals. Why else would you dress him? He'll get 12 goals, 7 on the power play, and 16 assists for 28 points.
Overall, the defence will end up eighteenth in the league in goals allowed. Still better than last year.
The Lightning will lose 28 man-games to suspension, led by Steve Downie's 15 gamer (he has repeat offender status).
Mathieu Garon will be good enough as a backup, but certainly won't see his stock as a starter go up. Tampa Bay is pretty much a career-burner for goalies. Only maybe three in team history have seen their stock improve in Tampa: Darren Puppa, Nikolai Khabibulin, and last year's hero Dwayne Roloson. Everyone else just passes through or gets smoked right out of the NHL. Where the hell is Marc Denis these days?
Hot Shot rookie Brett Connolly made the team out of training camp, but still has a year of junior eligibility. The last time that happened, Rick Tocchet kept James Wright in the lineup for fifty games before sending him down, but I suspect Steve Yzerman will not keep Connolly past the nine game limit, and will assign him back to the WHL. Yzerman is conservative that way.
Overall, the team will finish second in the Southeast Division (behind Washington) and sixth in the Eastern Conference. What happens in the playoffs?
Well. You know. Anything can happen in the playoffs.
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